Key Match-ups in Ravens vs. Patriots

In this Sunday’s AFC Championship game we will see two familiar playoff faces go against each other: the Baltimore Ravens and New England Patriots. Some things you might have expected to see in this game in the past are different, but even more aspects are the same. The Ravens defense is still really good (#3 in total defense in the regular season) and the Patriots offense is still really good (#2 in total offense in the regular season). Baltimore was squarely middle of the road offensively in the regular season, whereas New England was awful on defense – #31 overall, only Green Bay was worse.

Like in any game there are some key match-ups, of both players and units, that are going to decide this game. These are the ones that will prove to be most important.

Ravens’ Pass Rush vs. Patriots’ O Line and Tom Brady

These are two units that have both enjoyed consistency in personnel and success on the field in the recent years. The Patriots’ line has had great continuity and work really well with Tom Brady’s propensity for standing tall in the pocket. Brady almost always has enough time to make a good decision followed by a solid throw. On the other side, the two guys that are most important to the Ravens pass rush are OLB Terrell Suggs and DT Haloti Ngata. Those two guys are right at the top of their positions when it comes to talent and production. In my humble opinion, Ngata is the #1 DT in the league.

This first match-up is going to determine how the most dangerous force in this game, the Pats’ passing game, will perform. In my opinion, Brady and his line have too much experience together and Brady has too much pocket-awareness for New England to lose this match-up. Pats-1 Ravens-0

Ray Rice vs. Patriots’ Front 7

Rice is the best player on the Ravens’ offense, that shouldn’t really be up for debate. However, he cannot win this game by himself. Ray Rice is not going to outscore the Patriots by himself and is certainly going to need help from the other Ravens playmakers. The Patriots can hold Rice to a good game and focus on stopping the pass and be successful – similar to how they gameplanned against the Denver Fighting Tebows.

I predict Rice has a very solid game, but I’m not sure he can put up the number of points that you have to have to beat New England. Pats-1 Ravens-1

Joe Flacco vs. Being a QB in the NFL Playoffs

Joe Flacco is a good quarterback, but will he ever be a great quarterback? Well, winning this game would be a damn good start. Flacco has won playoff games, but you wouldn’t know if by asking Baltimore fans. While the Ravens have won a few games in the playoffs with Flacco at the helm they have consistently fallen short of expectations. I think this is his best chance to prove what he can do, but I just don’t think it will happen on Sunday. He has more talent and more weapons than ever, but I don’t see him putting together a game worthy of remembering. For that I’m deducting a point. Pats-1 Ravens-0

Patriots’ TEs vs. Ravens Nickel Package

You cannot defend the tight ends of the Patriots in a base defense, there is enough evidence by now to show that. The Patriots are so versatile they force you to play a ton of snaps outside of your base defense, in this case the Ravens’ 3-4. The combination of TEs R0b Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez is unprecedented and deadly. The 2 TE offensive set the Pats run is similar to Wildcat of recent years in that Defensive coordinators have not yet figured out the best way to defend it. While the Ravens defense is very good, I’m not convinced they have the personnel to adequately cover the athletic Patriots TEs. Pats-2 Ravens-0

I’m going to go with the final of score and pick the Pats in this game. Here goes the prediction: Patriots 27 over Ravens 17